Don't kid yourself that card counters memorize every card they
have seen dealt out of a shoe or deck?? If you see a player take a hit on his
hard nineteen against a dealer's 10 and he receives a two for a total of 21, he
isn't necessarily?an expert card counter.? That's too reckless a thing for a
card counter to do! Although, if the cards were dealt down to the last few in
the deck, there's a?good chance that the card counter would have worked out what
card is likely to come next. Unfortunately, though, in the real world of casino
blackjack, it?is unlikely that cards will be dealt down to the last remaining
cards, because it would? give a huge advantage to the card counter, a situation
that a?casino would want to avoid.? But having said all of this, it's not to say
that card counting can't be done, or that it can't be very profitable for?a
blackjack player.
It has been mathematically proven that a deck or shoe that is 'rich' or full
of?face cards and aces, favors the player over the dealer. On the other hand, a
deck rich in low cards however, will always favor the dealer.? Here's why:
-??If a player receives a 'natural', a ten point card and an ace, they
are?paid 3-2 on their original bet.? The dealer, on the other hand,?
?? only
wins the bet if?s/he?has blackjack.
-? If the dealer draws a point card
between 12 and 16 (which is considered a poor hand), they have to draw another
card and they are?
??? more likely to bust if the deck is rich in face cards.
Although the players don't have to hit these hands if they don't want to; but
the????
????dealer does have hit. .
-? The dealer with a two card totaling 9, 10 or 11 may not double in a high
card rich deck, but the play may choose to do so.
-? The more face cards there are, the more likely the player is to hit
blackjacks and pat hands (hand between 17-21).
-? By the same token, when there are more low value cards in a deck than face
cards and aces, a blackjack player can choose to?
?? modify their split and
double down decisions, (because the chances of winning these hands are lower
when a low card is dealt to the?
?? player after a split or double down).
Card counters use a betting strategy or system of betting their smallest
wagers when the deck is rich in low points cards, since their chances of winning
in this case are lower. When the deck is full of?high cards, the card counter
will increase their original bet since their chances of winning have now
improved..
So what does "card counting" mean for the blackjack player? Well, there are a
number of ways that blackjack players can count cards - cluster counting, the
hi-low system to mention but a few.? Some of these card counting systems are
highly complex, others simple...and there is little to suggest that the simple
techniques are any?less effective than the complex ones.
Card Counting - The Hi-Low System
A very popular card counting system is the Hi-Low or Point count system.?
This is a true card counting system and takes a lot of practice to
master.
You assign a point value of -1, 0 or +1 to every card dealt to
all the players at the table, including the dealer. Each card is assigned its
own specific point value. Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 each count as +1.?? Cards 7,
8, 9 each count as 0. Aces and 10-point cards are assigned a value of -1.? The
card counting player mentally keeps a running count of the cards exposed as they
are dealt, and makes betting decisions based on the current count total.
The greater the number of ten-point cards and aces remaining to be dealt, the
greater the advantage is to the player and he/she should increase their
bets.
If the running count is around zero, the deck or shoe is neutral and neither
the dealer nor the player has any advantage.
The higher the minus count, the greater the disadvantage is to the player,
because more 'stiff cards remain to be dealt. In this case a player should leave
the table, or at least, be making their minimum wager.
The further into the game you get, the more accurate and?credible?the count
becomes, and the size of the player's bets can be decreased when the deck is
rich in "stiff?cards", or increased with a better probability of winning when
the deck or shoe is rich in?aces and face cards.
Remember,?a player's decision process - when to stand, hit, double down, etc.
is still based on basic strategy. So, it is critical to learn the basic
strategy. However, you might need to adjust the basic strategy, depending on the
current card count. For example, if the running count is +2 or greater and you
have a hard 16 against a dealer's up card of ten, you should stand.? This is in
direct contradiction to the basic strategy. But you are more likely to bust in
this situation, considering that the deck or shoe is rich in face cards, so you
just ignore basic strategy and stand.
You can adopt a strategy of always
taking when the count is +3 or greater.? But it is generally safer to stick with
basic strategy and use the card count as an indication of when to decrease or up
the amount of your bet.? It's the?whole strategy behind basic card counting.
In most cases,?if you have a point count of +2 or greater in a single deck
game, consider increasing your initial wager.
True count versus running count
If you're playing in?a
multiple deck game, your betting should be increased when the true count is +2
or more. The?difference between a true count in a multiple deck game and a
running count in a single deck is that?the former?is based on the actual number
of decks still left to be played. It works like this:? let's say you are in a
single deck game and your first six cards dealt are small cards, you then have a
running count total of +6, which is to your advantage. If you're playing in a
multiple deck game and the first six cards you're dealt are all small cards, you
also have a running count of +6, but this, unfortunately,?doesn't equate to the
same advantage as in the single deck game, because you have several decks left
in the shoe which still have to be dealt.? Let's say you were in a six-deck
game, and the first six cards dealt to you were small cards, the count per
remaining deck (the true count) would actually be a little bit over 1, because
there are just less than?6 decks still to be played.? In summary, in a
multi-deck game, you must use a true count as your basis of increasing your
betting.?
How do you calculate the true count?? You just?divide the
'running' count by the number of decks remaining to be played (whether or not
they'll actually be played).?? For example, in a six-deck game, the dealer might
cut off a deck or more after the shuffle, but that doesn't impact in any way on
your calculation of the true count. Working out how many decks actually remains
isn't difficult at all...you simply observe the number of cards in the discard
tray.? Let's use our six-deck game example:? if you see about?two decks in the
discard tray, you know you have about four decks left to be played. If,?this
point, you had a running count of +8, divide +8 by the number of decks left (4)
to get your true count (= 2).? Even if the dealer shuffles before all of the
four remaining decks have been played, it doesn't impact on your true count
conversion or calculation.
While this form of counting cards requires
practice to properly master, and while the concentration required might detract
from your enjoyment of the game, initially,?it's a method that?may be used
effectively to improve your odds.
Casual Card Counting
Casual card is considered to be one of the simpler and less onerous methods
of card counting.? It is simply "casual observation" and doesn't require much in
the way of memory, mathematical calculation or concentration.? Casual card
counting won't guarantee that all your hands are winners, but it may well give
you a slight advantage when playing blackjack.
Blackjack strategy tells you that a deck rich in face cards is to the
advantage of the player.? You just need to casually observe the cards coming out
of the deck or shoe and draw your conclusions.??By way of example:? let's say
you're playing a multiple deck shoe and you notice, after a few hands, that very
few aces or face cards have been played.? It's likely that the next hand will be
good for the player, so you should consider increasing your wager.
If you're casual counting, watch out for extremes, for the predominance or
absence of exposed high cards or low cards, as the case may be.? No doubt
there'll be many hands you'll play in which the mix of low value and face cards
appears quite even. But think about increasing your bets when you notice a
marked?absence of high value cards.
Casual card counting is simple, and you should always try and use?this system
when you're playing?blackjack, unless, of course, you're following a strict card
counting system, like the Hi-Low system.
Shuffle Tracking or Cluster Counting
Shuffle tracking is quite a difficult to master, but relatively?effective
method of improving your odds when playing blackjack.? It is a system which
enables you to determine the probability of a higher than normal percentage of
high point cards being dealt (providing the player with an edge).
Shuffle tracking is premised on the observation that cards tend to "cluster"
in certain parts of a multi deck shoe, and that cards shuffled at the conclusion
of a shoe can be tracked enabling the player to?determine which portions of the
next shoe will be high in player friendly cards.
Here's how it's done:
When you are?playing a new shoe, mentally
divide the shoe into sections equal to one deck.? Also?make a mental note of the
flow of cards.? Try and observe which portions of each section are high
in?ten-point cards and aces.
You need to rate each section on how rich or poor in high cards they are, and
also make note of how the cards are placed in the discard box.
When the shoe is finished,?observe how the dealer shuffles the new shoe.
Observe and remember?where the clusters of high cards are located, and be aware
of when they will surface in the dealing of the next shoe.?
When you're playing this next shoe, you can hike your betting when you reach
the "play-friendly" sections of the shoe (those sections that you've calculated
are rich in high point cards), and decrease your betting when the deck is rich
in low point cards.
Once mastered, shuffle tracking is very effective in improving your odds, but
it is very difficult to master, and a number of casinos have taken counter
measures to undermine its effectiveness.? For example, some casinos use two
discard racks instead of one, use automated shuffling machines or?change the
shuffle pattern.
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